Home & Away Champs 18-19
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31-10-2018, 10:21 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2018 11:41 AM by Kino.)
Post: #1
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Home & Away Champs 18-19
OK - the following are predictions based on goal expectancy/poisson distribution (with a slight tweak).
This should be viewed as a trial - so we'll see how it goes. I'm trying to post an image of a spreadsheet. It should be available as an attachment. Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen. Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear. |
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04-11-2018, 08:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-11-2018 08:39 PM by Kino.)
Post: #2
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
A small profit of £8.20 to £5 stakes on the Home\Away selections.
Could maybe have included the Draw selections but I don't know how reliable they are - will keep an eye on these. |
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07-11-2018, 10:50 AM
Post: #3
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
I will (speculatively) add in a Draw bet.
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11-11-2018, 10:42 AM
Post: #4
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
A loss of 13.89 - better luck next time?
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21-11-2018, 10:45 AM
Post: #5
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
We shall see...
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26-11-2018, 11:23 AM
Post: #6
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
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26-11-2018, 01:31 PM
Post: #7
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws.
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29-11-2018, 08:59 AM
Post: #8
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(26-11-2018 01:31 PM)Kino Wrote: Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws. Not too bad - a profit of £13.74 |
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29-11-2018, 09:52 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2018 11:41 AM by Kino.)
Post: #9
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
So, let's see what we can do...
Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen. Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear. |
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30-11-2018, 10:26 AM
Post: #10
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
Just realised these images are not too clear.
It's not easy to post tables but for now I'm looking at score draws for Birmingham v Preston Bolton v Wigan |
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03-12-2018, 09:41 AM
Post: #11
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(30-11-2018 10:26 AM)Kino Wrote: Just realised these images are not too clear. Result: +£16.37 |
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04-12-2018, 12:12 PM
Post: #12
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
Let's see...
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07-12-2018, 10:22 AM
Post: #13
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.
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08-12-2018, 09:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2018 09:03 PM by Kino.)
Post: #14
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(07-12-2018 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote: Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80% |
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09-12-2018, 02:03 PM
Post: #15
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(08-12-2018 09:03 PM)Kino Wrote: Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80% So let's see how we get on... |
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18-12-2018, 10:02 AM
Post: #16
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
From now on I shall just post the raw data.
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20-12-2018, 10:46 AM
Post: #17
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
Ok, I've been taking a closer look at the spreadsheet predictions and I have to say Home/Away results are rather poor.
But, if I extract the Draw predictions the results so far are quite promising - just under 50% correct - which given the odds available should be worth considering (see attached). Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see... |
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23-12-2018, 10:17 AM
Post: #18
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(20-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote: Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see... Only highlighting possible Draw result. |
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27-12-2018, 08:41 AM
Post: #19
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(23-12-2018 10:17 AM)Kino Wrote: Only highlighting possible Draw result. and that went ok... (£10 stakes) |
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28-12-2018, 08:43 AM
Post: #20
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
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29-12-2018, 08:27 PM
Post: #21
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(28-12-2018 08:43 AM)Kino Wrote:(27-12-2018 08:41 AM)Kino Wrote: and that went ok... (£10 stakes) and it did! |
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30-12-2018, 10:46 AM
Post: #22
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
So let's see how we do in 2019...
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02-01-2019, 07:14 AM
Post: #23
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(30-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote: So let's see how we do in 2019... Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40% |
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06-01-2019, 01:22 PM
Post: #24
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(02-01-2019 07:14 AM)Kino Wrote: Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40% Fewer selections for the next games. |
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13-01-2019, 10:33 AM
Post: #25
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
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13-01-2019, 02:52 PM
Post: #26
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
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20-01-2019, 02:18 PM
Post: #27
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(13-01-2019 02:52 PM)Kino Wrote: So let's see if we can keep it up... Alas, no. Draw strike rate still about 38% |
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21-01-2019, 10:22 AM
Post: #28
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
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26-01-2019, 06:43 PM
Post: #29
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(21-01-2019 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote: So let's see...Not bad - a profit on the day. After today I won't be posting an attachment, just the draw selections. Next Draw prediction: 29/01/19 Bolton v Reading |
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30-01-2019, 10:57 AM
Post: #30
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RE: Home & Away Champs 18-19
(26-01-2019 06:43 PM)Kino Wrote: Next Draw prediction:£23 to £10 stakes. 01/02/19 Preston v Derby 02/02/19 Birmingham v Nott'm Forest 02/02/19 Bristol City v Swansea 02/02/19 Ipswich v Sheffield Weds 02/02/19 Millwall v Rotherham 02/02/19 Reading v Aston Villa 02/02/19 West Brom v Middlesbrough |
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