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Kino · (This post was last modified: 01-12-2018 11:41 AM by Kino.)

OK - the following are predictions based on goal expectancy/poisson distribution (with a slight tweak).

This should be viewed as a trial - so we'll see how it goes.

I'm trying to post an image of a spreadsheet. It should be available as an attachment.

Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen.
Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear.

Kino · (This post was last modified: 04-11-2018 08:39 PM by Kino.)

A small profit of £8.20 to £5 stakes on the Home\Away selections.
Could maybe have included the Draw selections but I don't know how reliable they are - will keep an eye on these.

Kino · 07-11-2018, 10:50 AM

I will (speculatively) add in a Draw bet.

Kino · 11-11-2018, 10:42 AM

A loss of 13.89 - better luck next time?

Kino · 21-11-2018, 10:45 AM

We shall see...

Kino · 26-11-2018, 11:23 AM

(21-11-2018 10:45 AM)Kino Wrote: We shall see...

Alas, a loss of about £11

Kino · 26-11-2018, 01:31 PM

Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws.

Kino · 29-11-2018, 08:59 AM

(26-11-2018 01:31 PM)Kino Wrote: Now with a complete change of strategy I'm going with those I reckon will be score draws.

Not too bad - a profit of £13.74

Kino · (This post was last modified: 01-12-2018 11:41 AM by Kino.)

So, let's see what we can do...

Edit Note: Using Firefox browser left-clicking on the attachment opens a new tab in which the image can be clearly seen.
Right-clicking and using Save As only downloads the thumbprint which is not clear.

Kino · 30-11-2018, 10:26 AM

Just realised these images are not too clear.
It's not easy to post tables but for now I'm looking at score draws for

Birmingham v Preston
Bolton v Wigan

Kino · 03-12-2018, 09:41 AM

(30-11-2018 10:26 AM)Kino Wrote: Just realised these images are not too clear.
It's not easy to post tables but for now I'm looking at score draws for

Birmingham v Preston
Bolton v Wigan

Result: +£16.37

Kino · 04-12-2018, 12:12 PM

Let's see...

Kino · 07-12-2018, 10:22 AM

Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.

Kino · (This post was last modified: 08-12-2018 09:03 PM by Kino.)

(07-12-2018 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote: Thought I'd add a bit more detail. Remember this is still a trial.

Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80%

Kino · 09-12-2018, 02:03 PM

(08-12-2018 09:03 PM)Kino Wrote: Not so good on the Draws but over/under 2.5 looks interesting ~80%

So let's see how we get on...

Kino · 18-12-2018, 10:02 AM

From now on I shall just post the raw data.

Kino · 20-12-2018, 10:46 AM

Ok, I've been taking a closer look at the spreadsheet predictions and I have to say Home/Away results are rather poor.
But, if I extract the Draw predictions the results so far are quite promising - just under 50% correct - which given the odds available should be worth considering (see attached).

Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see...

Kino · 23-12-2018, 10:17 AM

(20-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote: Whether this will continue is anyones guess - but let's see...

Only highlighting possible Draw result.

Kino · 27-12-2018, 08:41 AM

(23-12-2018 10:17 AM)Kino Wrote: Only highlighting possible Draw result.

and that went ok... (£10 stakes)

Kino · 28-12-2018, 08:43 AM

(27-12-2018 08:41 AM)Kino Wrote: and that went ok... (£10 stakes)

So let's see...

Kino · 29-12-2018, 08:27 PM

(28-12-2018 08:43 AM)Kino Wrote:
(27-12-2018 08:41 AM)Kino Wrote: and that went ok... (£10 stakes)

So let's see...

and it did!

Kino · 30-12-2018, 10:46 AM

So let's see how we do in 2019...

Kino · 02-01-2019, 07:14 AM

(30-12-2018 10:46 AM)Kino Wrote: So let's see how we do in 2019...

Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40%

Kino · 06-01-2019, 01:22 PM

(02-01-2019 07:14 AM)Kino Wrote: Not as good as expected, but the draw prediction strike rate is still about 40%

Fewer selections for the next games.

Kino · 13-01-2019, 10:33 AM

(06-01-2019 01:22 PM)Kino Wrote: Fewer selections for the next games.

But not a bad result

Kino · 13-01-2019, 02:52 PM

(13-01-2019 10:33 AM)Kino Wrote: But not a bad result

So let's see if we can keep it up...

Kino · 20-01-2019, 02:18 PM

(13-01-2019 02:52 PM)Kino Wrote: So let's see if we can keep it up...

Alas, no. Draw strike rate still about 38%

Kino · 21-01-2019, 10:22 AM

(20-01-2019 02:18 PM)Kino Wrote: Alas, no. Draw strike rate still about 38%

So let's see...

Kino · 26-01-2019, 06:43 PM

(21-01-2019 10:22 AM)Kino Wrote: So let's see...

Not bad - a profit on the day.

After today I won't be posting an attachment, just the draw selections.

Next Draw prediction:
29/01/19 Bolton v Reading

Kino · 30-01-2019, 10:57 AM

(26-01-2019 06:43 PM)Kino Wrote: Next Draw prediction:
29/01/19 Bolton v Reading

£23 to £10 stakes.

01/02/19 Preston v Derby
02/02/19 Birmingham v Nott'm Forest
02/02/19 Bristol City v Swansea
02/02/19 Ipswich v Sheffield Weds
02/02/19 Millwall v Rotherham
02/02/19 Reading v Aston Villa
02/02/19 West Brom v Middlesbrough